Excesso de confiança como uma experiência prévia: um estudo experimental
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Data
2020-11-23
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
According to behavioral finances, the decisions made by individuals are not always completely rational, these individuals can be influenced by psychological factors such as bias and heuristics. And one of these biases is overconfidence, which, instead of making individuals make successful decisions, leads them to make decisions in impulsive and irrational ways, which has been widely discussed by cognitive and behavioral psychologists and behavioral economists. Based on the need to study the importance of the role of trust in the decision-making process, this research aims to understand the bias of trust as a previous experience and the ability to describe the experience and its effects, as well as to verify the effect of the previous experience (confidence) in the preference of choosing a game and in the reports about the experience lived in the game. The research was carried out with 96 university students who were divided into 4 groups with 24 participants each, combined with the independent variables. Software Invest 1.0, developed by Brasileiro et al. (2017). Through the software it was possible to simulate two Markets for investments, A and B, presenting in them four sectors: Bank, Electrical, Mining and Oil. The results obtained in the study show that the preference of the participants' choice was greater for the Market that presented a greater number of information, even when the Market did not present a return. Another result
found was that even when individuals opting for markets with more information, when reporting why their choices were not able to identify the influencing variables in their choices. As well, the participants who went through the training, that is, who had their knowledge reinforced or acquired, showed a higher level of confidence in relation to investments, however, with the passing of the experimental sessions, the individuals without previous experience gradually increased their confidence .
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Palavras-chave
Preferência de escolha, Quantitativo de informações, Experiência prévia, Análise do comportamento, Choice preference, Quantitative of information, Previous experience, Confidence, Behavior analysis
Citação
MOREIRA, M. S. Excesso de confiança como uma experiência prévia: um estudo experimental. 2020. 121 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Gestão Organizacional) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Catalão, 2020.